Linux will never rule the desktop

Posted March 21st, 2009 by kaikokan

Linux will never rule the desktop, and here's why:

If you draw a line giving the rate at which Linux is taking over the desktop you'll see it'll take several years from now to become the biggest operating system on desktops.

This is never going to happen, because the desktop as it is will die long before we reach this point.
The good thing is Microsoft will probably die with it!

Don't think this will happen?

There has been a big shift in interfaces before, when we went from command line to gui based.
The shift in technology made most dos programs unusable and this was no problem for microsoft because they initiated the change themselves.
The next big change is already happening, the use of computers has changed over the years and there are more and more dedicated devices which are used for all kinds of things we would do with a PC in the nineties.

What would you need a desktop for in a few years?

Reading your email?

I've been reading email mobile now for years, it's so much easier when you just see the headlines of your emails on the screen of your in car navigation while driving. Saves time scanning trough it, and you read all important mail on the go already.In a few years nobody will use a PC for email anymore.

browsing the internet?

if the screens get improved and maybe projection or something your going to use your mobile device. I already know a lot of people who hardly use their PC for browsing.

Ebook reading?

We have all seen the new ebook readers, which are a much better fit for reading from a screen.

Watching movies?

Have you seen the new eee keyboard? A PC will be embedded in something in the future and just plugin to a TV or something (or wireless interface) to watch your downloaded movies.

Games?

PC hardware is becoming smaller and smaller, I'm just waiting for it to become small enough to integrate in a controller, you will be running dedicated hardware for pc games in the future (if it still exists, in it's current form)

Dedicated devices have the future

As hardware will keep getting cheaper and cheaper and smaller and smaller in the coming years, I don't see any application left for PC's so the desktop will probably die. And guess what will be running on 90% of the dedicated devices? Most probably it's a version of a certain free and flexible open source operating system.

I can't wait for the year the desktop dies!

Just take a look here:

http://www2.imec.be/imec_com/imec-reports-ultra-thin-chip-embedding-for-...

This is the future of electronics, see the possibilities? Your not going to need a desktop for anything if you have super small and cheap fold-able hardware.


consume vs. create

Anonymous 2 years 45 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago

experience vs. act

The passive energy in you may... Never mind that bit.

I use machines to create and process. As a creative person, a machine that can be modified for various tasks using simple syntax is very appealing. Oh whats this? Look! It's a personal computer! Wow! Amazing!

I'm not going to be making a web app or poster or song on a phone any time soon. Yes, the reason I use a traditional desktop for making music is because I prefer it to dedicated devices such as the ground breaking and entirely revolutionary synthesizer or hard disk recorder with tiny screens and layers of menus and artificial limitations. :P OK, I do use hardware synths and trackers sometimes - but not alone and not nearly as much as a *trackball*, keyboard, and midi control devices. So perhaps having seen this shift happen in opposite direction, I say we will be using a mixture in the future. When I started programming I was always happy that I could use the one box for so many things. If you really want to believe the marketing hype, then yes, go an buy the latest gadget that doubles as an automatic nose picker.

Yawn...

Sorry, not buying it...

Anonymous 2 years 45 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago

Desktops will be around as long as content needs to be created - which will be forever. Just because your only use for a computer is to read email and surf the net, which highly mobile devices do relatively well, it doesn't mean traditional deskops are obsolete.

Some things require large screen real estate, such as creating graphical content. Others require input mechanisms that allow for fast and comfortable interaction over long periods of time, such as programming. While it may be true that the huge brick of a desktop may be replaced by an equally powerful mobile device, that doesn't mean that it won't be running a full-fledged operating system that I can sit down and my desk and attach to a mostrous screen and comfortable peripherals.

I agree that Linux will command this market. However, I don't agree with your view on the desktop disappearing - because there are many many more uses to a desktop than chat/email and browsing the web.

And I wouldn't write Microsoft off so quickly, it simply shows your naivety. While their steady decline seems inevitable in the OS market, their resources for creating and marketing are astounding.

I agree

admin 2 years 45 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago

When it comes to marketing there's no match for microsoft. That's the only reason they still exist. How else can it be they are selling a inferior product, competing with a free alternative. Still they'll have to be flexible, very, very, flexible if they want to survive. The market will change, and while you may be right there will always be a need for an interface which gives you the function of the desktop, it doesn't have to "be" a desktop. The interface is getting old, and it will most certainly be replaced. These kind of changes are very big, and disruptive new technologies have the power to kill off big companies.

It happened before

Terminology

Anonymous 2 years 45 weeks 4 days 13 hours ago

Desktop versus mobile.
Desktop as a metaphor.
Desktop really meaning a desk's top.

This could be stretched further but the idea here is that people use the same words for different things (like free-as-in-beer and freedom-free).

To me the desktop is a way to put things which are useful in close context: so you got windows (==papers), cut and paste (==use scissors and glue), copy (==photocopying?), drag (==moving papers) etc.

Such a desktop can work on the ground, on the backseat of a car, on a restaurant's table etc. Mobile is just a desktop one can carry.

Then what is not a desktop?

That is when all the available tools are accessible -- e.g. a terminal app (like xterm) plus a shell (like bash).

And there's one step beyond this which would be using all existent apps and data -- what would this be called... "virtual reality"?

Desktop

Anonymous 2 years 45 weeks 4 days 14 hours ago

Ever tried to compute standing up? It doesn't work very well. Therefor, we sit to compute, and at a desk since we need stuff at hand. One of them will be a PC for the forseeable future. We need large screens and keyboards for now. If you can get PCs to read our minds or interpret our speech with better accuracy, perhaps the keyboard could go. Then we need a pointer. The keyboard can do it but the trackball was tried and found wanting. That leaves pretty well the interface we are used to: rectangular regions on the screen for interacting with specific processes. Perhaps icons can do different things soon, but the desktop stays.

M$ will die without the desktop going away. To avoid death, M$ is diversifying like crazy but they cannot gain monopoly anywhere like they had on the desktop. Death for M$ means earning money the old-fashioned way, earning it. They are quite welcome to earn money, but they have worn out their welcome leveraging the monopoly on the desktop. That ends this year. Vista and 7 will continue to flop with business and many will turn to GNU/Linux or MacOS at home and office. M$ will become just another company scrambling to make a living in a few years. Now, they are paying people to use XP on netbooks. That is not a sustainable business model and fraught with anti-trust snags. If M$ wastes any more energy in messing with the competition (e.g. TomTom) they will destroy themselves just as SCO did. It will just take a bit longer because of the mass of the carcass.

Head-up displays

Anonymous 2 years 45 weeks 4 days 14 hours ago

...and retinal painting may eventually make your "desktop" be as portable as your glasses (or contact lenses) with resolutions as good as one eyecell cluster and field of view as big as user wants it. Gestures or even microgestures and eye-pointers may be used for interface.

Yes, I'm citing Vernor Vinge's "Rainbows End" :)

I have to disagree with you

Anonymous 2 years 45 weeks 4 days 15 hours ago

Desktop are here to stay.

Now as for the corporate World desktop os will play a big part but also how and what device we use outside the office to do are work will also play a big part on how are work computers sync with are devices.
Look at the iPhone for once they want to compete with the rim phones only problem they weren't business friendly so the last few OS iPhone made was to conquer that problem and address other issues that the phone lacked.

But with blackberrys and the iphone still need to be sync to a desktop from time to time. Some Linux Distros have realize this and started to take time into netbook friendly OS and so on.

Look at the Moblin project so dont say Linux doesn't have a chance to rule. Xubuntu is made for old notebooks also if you wanted could run it on a netbook.

But for the many out there Linux has been installed on many many Dell Mini 9 out there with Ubuntu.

Vista cant run on a netbook unless you have at less 2 gb and thats the max ram off a dell mini 9 and Acer Aspire One max out at 1.5gb.

I know Dell will equip theres with Windows XP nice OS but there will no longer be support for it. Linux on the other hand one you can control the OS you it doesnt control you. With the many many guru's out there you will always have support.

The reason linux has been so popular the last few years is because of vista.
People wanted another choice since it was either go back to Windows XP or find another OS. MAC is out of the question for the average PC owner.
Yes theres the Hackintosh since MAC has a x86 version.

But the projects out there one could work maybe you tried them all and none of them work. But the average user one doesnt have the time nor the know how to get it to run. I have answer my share of questions for noobs.

Or you can steer away throw you PC out and buy a overpriced MAC and have a true MAC.(I am not here to flame the MAC I own two MAC BookPros and they still beat like a champ) vs the 25 PC Laptops I have own and took a crap.

Hardware failure but the Linux OS and UNIX OS always made my hardware run better then in Windows. I actually since the vista era always get my laptop shipped to me with out a OS its better that way.

Im proud to say that Im happy with Ubuntu,SuSe and FreeBSD had them before windows Vista And Xp actually. I was search for something else even more after MS-DOS and command line went out the door.

And found it in Linux and UNIX, I know people including me that can run around a command line in Linux and Unix then put them in a GUI and there as slow as a 84 year old grandmother.

Command Line is what sold me on Linux and UNIX. But hey what do I know man I am not here to flame you either cause your right in a way everybody wants things smaller and smaller. Most of the task the average user needs a computer for they can get out of a phone now.

And since this world got themselves all bunch up in speed no one has the time to carry a big bulky laptop around when there phone can pretty much give them what they want when they want as long as there phone has reception.

So the desktop will be changed but remember this it will be around forever. How Linux takes all this to there advantage it what will bring them into the lime light.

Linux will never rule the desktop

Anonymous 2 years 45 weeks 4 days 18 hours ago

Interesting - a quasi science and speculation blog

if by desktop you are limiting it to a personal computer
please define a personal computer

the devices you describe still have "desktops" as your
eee and your mobile phone do now. The "desktop" will
not die until you are using a device for one purpose only
(options on anything require a desktop of some sort even if
its just a menu list)

a phone as a phone (just dials and answers)

a browser as a browser
hardware dependent needs an input and output device
with a miraculous device for constant
connectivity to whatever is to be browsed.
(interestingly enough to use a
browser for any thing useful other than just browsing
you need to build in a quasi desktop, typing in urls and reading the results is ok but sometimes you like the option to save, print etc. )

even single items for games have a desktop to pick various options.

just because its smaller doesn't mean you won't want it
to do more than 1 thing. (mainframe -> mini -> micro -> nano -> pico ) its not the size its adaptability

being "connected" does not mean that there is an
actual intelligence working with new "knowledge"
just more input into your personal userspace
(and now its up to you to figure out reality
as it relates to you)

*******************************************

Microsoft die? not likely unfortunately spawned mutations can be worse than the original for other inhabitants.

*************************************88

you are a true child of web 2.0
lost in the cloud

no problems finding you now or in the future

(ps reading while driving may be ubercool but
you annoy the hell out of other drivers that
aren't multi-tasking while driving)

texting while driving is ok too?

one the gadgets you will need is an autopilot for
your vehicle (hope its a good plug in)
maybe the plug in can interface with you
and allow true multi-tasking ie human 2.0
(oops sorry already patented as a Cyborg)

***********************************************

connected lifestyle means
if they want you they will find you

the problem may be who/what are they(s).

AnonEMouse

Thank you!

admin 2 years 45 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago

Thank you, I greatly enjoyed your response.
I never said I want the future to be like this, just think it will be like that.
Don't you think a "desktop" refers to the interface we use on todays PC's?
I don't think every graphical interface can be referred to as desktop.

A menu or a gui doesn't make a desktop.

I disagree

Anonymous 2 years 45 weeks 4 days 18 hours ago

I see the mobile platform becoming the desktop, rather than the desktop dying.

The laptop I have does so much more than the small list you have set forth and I couldn't imagine doing a 15 student lesson on mobile phones.

Perhaps your talking about the unforeseeable future. Wistful.

"if you draw a line" I get

Anonymous 2 years 45 weeks 4 days 19 hours ago

"if you draw a line"

I get your point, but still... This embodies the fallacy of assuming linearity. Natural and economic and technical processes tend to be exponential, because they involve positive feedback.

Just a thought... Every time

Anonymous 2 years 45 weeks 4 days 19 hours ago

Just a thought... Every time somebody attempts to predict what the future will be like in 5yrs/10yrs, somehow its always a complete miss.

Case not proved...

Anonymous 2 years 45 weeks 4 days 20 hours ago

Well, lots of bold statements but not a lot of backup.

I, in ten years time, will probably still be writing policy papers and dealing with complex financial spreadsheets. I won't be doing this using my phone or my fridge. I'll probably use a laptop more-or-less as I do now.

For most applications a screen will remain more practical than projection, because I usually don't have a blank wall or a dark-ish room.

The thrust of this article has nothing particular to do with Linux (as per the headline) and the par2 statement about Microsoft disappearing is not backed up in any way.

Please try again. There are important points to be made about devices and what they will run, but this is nonsense.

a laptop,you think?

admin 2 years 45 weeks 4 days 18 hours ago

I think this guy has a better view on that:

http://future-hi-tech.blogspot.com/

Not a chance...

Anonymous 2 years 45 weeks 15 hours 5 min ago

Nope. I'm a technology enthusiast, and spend more time online than I should, but there's a major lack of trust about the connected world. If worst comes to worst today, my bank balance gets emptied and my laptop dies. With an internet connection into my brain... you've got to be kidding.

Besides which, work is work, and healthy humans needs to be able to switch off. Many, myself included, don't always have the self control to stop checking their mail, so we need physical separation from the internet from time to time. Climb a mountain. Go fishing.

A broadband brain and a retinal projector? No thanks. Just because something is possible doesn't mean we can be made to buy it. I really believe that.

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